Delegating strategic decision-making to machines: Dr. Strangelove Redux?

• Published in: Journal of strategic studies Vol. 45; no. 3; pp. 439 - 477
• Main Author: Johnson, James
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Routledge 16.04.2022; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Ambiguity; Artificial intelligence; Creativity; Critical thinking; Decision analysis; Decision making; deterrence policy; emerging technology; Empathy; Escalation; Impact analysis; Intelligence; Intuition; Mass media effects; National security; News; Non-state actors; nuclear security; Social media; Social networks; Stability analysis; strategic stability; Tradeoffs; U.S.-China relations
• ISSN: 0140-2390; 1743-937X
• DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2020.1759038

Will the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in strategic decision-making be stabilizing or destabilizing? What are the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force to machines? How might non-nuclear state and non-state actors leverage AI to put pressure on nuclear states? This article analyzes the impact of strategic stability of the use of AI in the strategic decision-making process, in particular, the risks and trade-offs of pre-delegating military force (or automating escalation) to machines. It argues that AI-enabled decision support tools - by substituting the role of human critical thinking, empathy, creativity, and intuition in the strategic decision-making process - will be fundamentally destabilizing if defense planners come to view AI's 'support' function as a panacea for the cognitive fallibilities of human analysis and decision-making. The article also considers the nefarious use of AIenhanced fake news, deepfakes, bots, and other forms of social media by non-state actors and state proxy actors, which might cause states to exaggerate a threat from ambiguous or manipulated information, increasing instability.