Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and anthropogenic stressors

Abstract Rising temperatures, rapid urbanization and soaring demand for natural resources threaten deltas worldwide and make them vulnerable to rising seas, subsidence, droughts, floods, and salt intrusion. However, climate change projections in deltas often address climate-driven stressors in isola...

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Published inCommunications earth & environment Vol. 2; no. 1; pp. 1 - 11
Main Authors Eslami, Sepehr, Hoekstra, Piet, Minderhoud, Philip S. J., Trung, Nam Nguyen, Hoch, Jannis M., Sutanudjaja, Edwin H., Dung, Do Duc, Tho, Tran Quang, Voepel, Hal E., Woillez, Marie-Noëlle, van der Vegt, Maarten
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group 01.12.2021
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
Anthropogenic factors
Climate change
Deltas
Drought
Environmental changes
Environmental stress
Fluvial sediments
Groundwater
Human influences
Intrusion
Mathematical models
Natural resources
Numerical models
River beds
Saline water
Saline water intrusion
Salts
Sea level
Sea level rise
Subsidence
Urbanization
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Summary:Abstract Rising temperatures, rapid urbanization and soaring demand for natural resources threaten deltas worldwide and make them vulnerable to rising seas, subsidence, droughts, floods, and salt intrusion. However, climate change projections in deltas often address climate-driven stressors in isolation and disregard parallel anthropogenic processes, leading to insufficient socio-political drive. Here, using a combination of process-based numerical models that integrate both climatic and anthropogenic environmental stressors, we project salt intrusion within the Mekong mega-Delta, in the next three decades. We assess the relative effects of various drivers and show that anthropogenic forces such as groundwater extraction-induced subsidence and riverbed level incisions due to sediment starvation can increase the salinity-affected areas by 10–27% compared to the present-day situation, while future sea level rise adds another 6–19% increase. These projections provide crucial input for adaptation policy development in the Mekong Delta and the methodology inspires future systemic studies of environmental changes in other deltas.
ISSN:2662-4435
2662-4435
DOI:10.1038/s43247-021-00208-5