Climate change impacts on meteorological drought using SPI and SPEI: case study of Ankara, Turkey

Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inHydrological sciences journal Vol. 65; no. 2; pp. 254 - 268
Main Authors Danandeh Mehr, Ali, Sorman, Ali Unal, Kahya, Ercan, Hesami Afshar, Mahdi
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Abingdon Taylor & Francis 25.01.2020
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Subjects
Ankara
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
CMIP5 experiments
Drought
Drought analysis
Dry spells
Evapotranspiration
Evapotranspiration-precipitation relationships
Extreme drought
Extreme weather
Global climate
Global climate models
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Precipitation
SPEI
SPI
Standardized precipitation index
Turkey
Ankara Turkey
Turkey
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:Using regionally downscaled and adjusted outputs of three global climate models (GCMs), meteorological drought analysis was accomplished across Ankara, the capital city of Turkey. To this end, standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were projected under (representative concentration pathway) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. In general, our results show that Ankara experienced six severe and two extreme drought events during the reference period, 1971-2000. However, the projections indicate fewer drought events for the near-future period of 2016-2040, with no potential extreme drought events. While the RCP4.5 scenario showed that dry spells will be dominant in the second half of the near-future period, the RCP8.5 scenario projected that dry spells will be evenly distributed during the entire near-future period.
ISSN:0262-6667
2150-3435
DOI:10.1080/02626667.2019.1691218