Is the rise in high school graduation rates real? High-stakes school accountability and strategic behavior

• Published in: Labour economics Vol. 82; p. 102355
• Main Authors: Harris, Douglas N., Liu, Lihan, Barrett, Nathan, Li, Ruoxi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.06.2023
• Subjects: high school graduation; Human capital production; school accountability; I2; Human capital production; J24; high school graduation; school accountability
• ISSN: 0927-5371; 1879-1034
• DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102355

•Publicly reported U.S. high school graduation rates have increased by 10-18 percentage points over the past two decades, which suggests a significant increase in human capital.•We find that this increase is due in part to graduation accountability from No Child Left Behind (NCLB).•Since accountability can lead to strategic behavior, we carried out additional analysis of specific potential distortions. Changes in high school graduation exams, GEDs, credit recovery, and high school exit codes do not appear to be significant explanations.•This provides some of the first evidence to date that federal accountability has substantially increased the nation's stock of human capital. We show that publicly reported U.S. high school graduation rates have increased by 10-18 percentage points over the past two decades. Using national difference-in-differences analyses of state- and district-level variation in graduation rates, we also find that graduation accountability from No Child Left Behind (NCLB) was likely a principal cause. Additional analysis of high school graduation exams, GEDs, credit recovery, and high school exit codes suggest that strategic behavior is not a primary explanation. This provides some of the first evidence to date that federal accountability has substantially increased the nation's stock of human capital