Estimating HIV hazard rates from cross-sectional HIV prevalence data

• Published in: Statistics in medicine Vol. 25; no. 14; pp. 2441 - 2449
• Main Authors: Wong, Kam-Fai, Tsai, Wei-Yann, Kuhn, Louise
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 30.07.2006; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Computer Simulation; Cross-Sectional Studies; current status data; Diagnostic tests; Estimating techniques; Female; generalized linear model; Health hazards; HIV; HIV Infections - epidemiology; Human immunodeficiency virus; Humans; Incidence; Likelihood Functions; Linear Models; maximum likelihood estimation; Middle Aged; Population Surveillance - methods; Prevalence; Risk; South Africa - epidemiology; Studies; South Africa; Cape Town South Africa
• ISSN: 0277-6715; 1097-0258
• DOI: 10.1002/sim.2371

We propose a method of estimating the HIV hazard rate in a population when only cross‐sectional data measuring HIV‐prevalence are available. In a cross‐sectional study, individuals who test positive are left‐censored since we know only that the transition time is smaller than the monitoring time. Individuals who test negative are right‐censored since we know only that the transition time is greater than the monitoring time. The transition time is not observed directly. For our method, we assume the hazard rate is well‐defined after the time we start screening. We assume further the mortality rates for HIV‐positive and HIV‐negative individuals are known. The method is illustrated using HIV‐prevalence data collected over four years among women in Cape Town, South Africa. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.