China's Fate as a Multinational State: a preliminary assessment

• Published in: The Journal of contemporary China Vol. 15; no. 47; pp. 329 - 348
• Main Authors: Zhu, Yuchao, Blachford, Dongyan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Abingdon Taylor & Francis Group 01.05.2006; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: China; Communism; Communists; Domestic politics; Ethnic Groups; Ethnic minorities; Foreign policy; Institution building; International Law; International politics; International relations; Law; Minority & ethnic groups; Multiraciality; Peoples Republic of China; Political Participation; Politics; Post-communist societies; Realpolitik; Regional policy; Regional studies; Secession; Soviet studies; State; Tibet; U.S.S.R; Yugoslavia; China
• ISSN: 1067-0564; 1469-9400
• DOI: 10.1080/10670560500535043

After the collapse of the two communist multinational states, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, the fact that China survives as the only communist multinational state poses an interesting question: why does China remain intact and how long will it be able to survive in its present state? This paper tries to address these questions. The analysis is centred on three areas: the formation and characteristics of China's ethnic minorities and their role in this multinational state; the relevant domestic politics including institution building and polices; and the influence of external conditions such as international law and realpolitik. The preliminary finding is that in fact only two minority groups in two regions, Tibetans in Tibet and Uygurs in Xinjiang, have the real potential of secession, but it is very unlikely that China as a multinational state will disintegrate in the near future because the internal environment and international politics do not constitute adequate conditions for that to happen.