Online social networks and offline protest

• Published in: EPJ data science Vol. 4; no. 1; p. 19
• Main Authors: Steinert-Threlkeld, Zachary C, Mocanu, Delia, Vespignani, Alessandro, Fowler, James
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2015; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Complexity; Computer Appl. in Social and Behavioral Sciences; Computer Science; Coordination; Data-driven Science; Digital media; Longitudinal studies; Modeling and Theory Building; Regular Article; Social behavior; Social interactions; Social networks; Social organization; Twitter; protests; Arab Spring; social media; collective action
• ISSN: 2193-1127; 2193-1127
• DOI: 10.1140/epjds/s13688-015-0056-y

Large-scale protests occur frequently and sometimes overthrow entire political systems. Meanwhile, online social networks have become an increasingly common component of people’s lives. We present a large-scale longitudinal study that connects online social media behaviors to offline protest. Using almost 14 million geolocated tweets and data on protests from 16 countries during the Arab Spring, we show that increased coordination of messages on Twitter using specific hashtags is associated with increased protests the following day. The results also show that traditional actors like the media and elites are not driving the results. These results indicate social media activity correlates with subsequent large-scale decentralized coordination of protests, with important implications for the future balance of power between citizens and their states.