Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

• Published in: Science China. Earth sciences Vol. 65; no. 2; pp. 257 - 268
• Main Authors: Pei, Weilai, Zhou, Shiyong, Zhuang, Jiancang, Xiong, Ziyao, Piao, Jian
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beijing Science China Press 01.02.2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Disasters; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquake construction; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Environmental risk; Federal regulation; Geological hazards; Hazard assessment; Mathematical models; Natural disasters; Prediction models; Review; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismology; Statistical analysis; Statistical models; Urban areas; Earthquake prediction; Stress release model; Epidemic type aftershock sequence model; Statistical seismology; Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment
• ISSN: 1674-7313; 1869-1897
• DOI: 10.1007/s11430-021-9824-0

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology; however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant; particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M 8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequence) should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.