Global road fatality trends’ estimations based on country-wise micro level data

• Published in: Accident analysis and prevention Vol. 111; pp. 297 - 310
• Main Author: Al-Madani, Hashim M.N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2018
• Subjects: Adjustments; Continent; Crash death; Death definition; Global; Modelling; Underreporting; Continent; Crash death; Underreporting; Adjustments; Modelling; Death definition; Global
• ISSN: 0001-4575; 1879-2057
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2017.11.035

•Micro-level data from 215 states show 791,000- 904,000 global road deaths in 2014.•Road deaths are adjusted for underreporting, death definition, and missing data.•The high range of road death is at least 40% lesser than WHO & GBD-2010 estimates.•Opposite to WHO estimates, the global road deaths are in a peak threshold state.•The forecasting models indicate a worldwide drop of 12% in road deaths by 2025. The global road crash deaths during the past 35 years are estimated and analysed considering micro-level data for 215 countries. The data were gathered from Governmental records, international databases, and personal contacts. The data are adjusted for underreporting, death definition differences and missing data. The study models both reported and adjusted death to forecast future crash trends for each continent. The developed models employed curve fitting regression technique. It took over five years to build-up the database. The global sum of crash deaths showed firm increasing trends between 1980 and 2008. Subsequently, the global deaths tend to slow down. The adjusted death during 2014 ranged between 792,000 and 905,000. The high range showed 40% lesser death than World Health Organization (WHO) estimate. The developed models presented a plateauing transition stage of global road deaths before descending. This is contradicting WHO and The World Bank (TWB) forecasts. The global adjusted death for 2020 and 2030, differed substantially from WHO and TWB forecasts. The results showed inconsistencies in road deaths between various WHO sectors. The trend of crash fatalities in Asia followed closely with that for global trend, and that in Africa it showed fluctuated trend with steep increasing tendency after 1999. In South America, it showed continuous ascending trends, and that in Europe and Oceanic countries showed clear descending patterns. The trend in North and Central America did not change much during the period between 1980 and 2007. While the developed models indicated drops of 33% in North and Central America, 18% in Oceania and 13% in Asia by 2025 compared with 2014, they increase by over 44% in Africa and 32% in South America. The poor safety records in several continents, require careful reading, proper interpretation of the results and extensive research.