The impact of climate change on Brazil's agriculture

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 740; p. 139384
• Main Authors: Zilli, Marcia, Scarabello, Marluce, Soterroni, Aline C., Valin, Hugo, Mosnier, Aline, Leclère, David, Havlík, Petr, Kraxner, Florian, Lopes, Mauricio Antonio, Ramos, Fernando M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 20.10.2020
• Subjects: beef; bioenergy; Brazil; cerrado; Change in production; climate change; Corn; forestry; forests; GLOBIOM-Brazil; land use; Land-use competition; Soybean; Sugar cane; sugars; Brazil; Corn; Land-use competition; Sugar cane; Change in production; Soybean; GLOBIOM-Brazil
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139384

Brazilian agricultural production provides a significant fraction of the food consumed globally, with the country among the top exporters of soybeans, sugar, and beef. However, current advances in Brazilian agriculture can be directly impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. Here, we quantify these impacts until 2050 using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global partial equilibrium model of the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy that includes various refinements reflecting Brazil's specificities. For the first time, projections of future agricultural areas and production are based on future crop yields provided by two Global Gridded Crop Models (EPIC and LPJmL). The climate change forcing is included through changes in climatic variables projected by five Global Climate Models in two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) participating in the ISIMIP initiative. This ensemble of twenty scenarios permits accessing the robustness of the results. When compared to the baseline scenario, GLOBIOM-Brazil scenarios suggest a decrease in soybeans and corn production, mainly in the Matopiba region in the Northern Cerrado, and southward displacement of agricultural production to near-subtropical and subtropical regions of the Cerrado and the Atlantic Forest biomes. [Display omitted] •Projections of climate change impacts on main Brazilian agricultural commodities•Use of spatial explicit partial equilibrium global land use model adapted to Brazil•Framework integrating land-use competition and biophysical and economic aspects•Displacement of soybean and corn production toward subtropical regions of Brazil•Decrease in soybean and corn production, especially in the Matopiba region