The impacts of climate on retailing in the UK with particular reference to the anomalously hot summer of 1995

• Published in: International journal of climatology Vol. 19; no. 13; pp. 1493 - 1507
• Main Authors: Agnew, M.D., Palutikof, J.P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 15.11.1999; Wiley
• Subjects: climate extremes; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change; Earth, ocean, space; economic impacts; Exact sciences and technology; External geophysics; Meteorology; multiple regression; rainfall; retailing; sunshine; temperature; United Kingdom; Europe; Climate; Rain; Atmospheric temperature; Extreme value; Sunshine; Economic impact; Multiple regression
• ISSN: 0899-8418; 1097-0088
• DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19991115)19:13<1493::AID-JOC455>3.0.CO;2-V

The impacts on the UK retailing sector of the extreme climate of 1995 are analysed in the context of monthly climate conditions in the previous two decades. Over the period from November 1994 to October 1995, the mean monthly Central England temperature (CET) was 1.6°C above the 1961–1990 normal, the highest mean 12‐month temperature since the CET records began in 1659. Retail activities are geared towards average conditions and are therefore affected in the short‐term by any unexpected change in supply and demand. This study focuses on those areas of retailing where the responses to climate in terms of a change in consumer demand are most likely to be clear: first, clothing and footwear and, second, food and drink. Economic time series are extracted from official government publications (1972–1995). Stepwise multiple regressions are performed to assess the amount of variance in the retail series accounted for by monthly temperature, rainfall and sunshine indices. Statistically significant associations are found between retail and climate indices over the 1972–1995 study period, these are generally strongest in winter and spring, and weakest in summer. There is some indication of an increase in the climate‐sensitivity of the retail series in unusually hot years. This may be a function of factors such as: ‘just‐in‐time’ supply chains, refrigeration and changes in the trading environment. The anomalous climate of 1995 has the greatest economic impact on the clothing and footwear market, with extreme temperatures at the end of the summer associated with a decline in the market. An attempt is made to place a monetary value on the 1995 impacts. It is estimated that the clothing and footwear market sustained a loss of £383 million (1.7% of turnover). However, the extreme climate of 1995 brought gains to the beer and wine industries of £123 million (0.9% of turnover) and £11 million (0.2% of turnover), respectively, and a gain of approximately £25 million (1.8% of turnover) to the fruit and vegetable markets. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society