Selection of the Main Control Parameters for the Dst Index Prediction Model Based on a Layer-wise Relevance Propagation Method

• Published in: The Astrophysical journal. Supplement series Vol. 260; no. 1; pp. 6 - 13
• Main Authors: Li, Y. Y., Huang, S. Y., Xu, S. B., Yuan, Z. G., Jiang, K., Wei, Y. Y., Zhang, J., Xiong, Q. Y., Wang, Z., Lin, R. T., Yu, L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Saskatoon The American Astronomical Society 01.05.2022; IOP Publishing
• Subjects: DST Index; Geomagnetic fields; Neural networks; Parameters; Prediction models; Propagation; Solar wind; Solar wind parameters; Solar-terrestrial interactions; Space weather
• ISSN: 0067-0049; 1538-4365
• DOI: 10.3847/1538-4365/ac616c

The prediction of the Dst index is an important subject in space weather. It has significant progress with the prevalent applications of neural networks. The selection of input parameters is critical for the prediction model of the Dst index or other space-weather models. In this study, we perform a layer-wise relevance propagation (LRP) method to select the main parameters for the prediction of the Dst index and understand the physical interpretability of neural networks for the first time. Taking an hourly Dst index and 10 types of solar wind parameters as the inputs, we utilize a long short-term memory network to predict the Dst index and present the LRP method to analyze the dependence of the Dst index on these parameters. LRP defines the relevance score for each input, and a higher relevance score indicates that the corresponding input parameter contributes more to the output. The results show that Dst, E y , B z , and V are the main control parameters for Dst index prediction. In order to verify the LRP method, we design two more supplementary experiments for further confirmation. These results confirm that the LRP method can reduce the initial dimension of neural network input at the cost of minimum information loss and contribute to the understanding of physical processes in space weather.