Evaluating multifactor risks under conceptual uncertainty

• Published in: Cybernetics and systems analysis Vol. 45; no. 2; pp. 223 - 231
• Main Authors: Pankratova, N. D., Nedashkovskaya, N. I.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston Springer US 01.03.2009; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Approximation; Artificial Intelligence; Control; Cybernetics; Decision making; Fuzzy; Fuzzy logic; Fuzzy set theory; Hierarchies; Intervals; Judgments; Mathematical models; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Processor Architectures; Risk; Risk assessment; Software Engineering/Programming and Operating Systems; Statistical analysis; Studies; Subjectivity; Systems Analysis; Systems Theory; fuzzy expert judgments; BOCR; risk of subjective judgments; multifactor risks; analytical hierarchy process (AHP)
• ISSN: 1060-0396; 1573-8337
• DOI: 10.1007/s10559-009-9090-8

A tool is proposed to evaluate multifactor risks during the operation of an innovation system of technological forecast. A modified BOCR method of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is developed. It allows: integrating the situation and force majeur risk evaluation into an overall structure of decision making with the help of AHP along with evaluating benefits, costs, and opportunities for each alternative; processing expert judgments in the form of fuzzy preference relations; taking into account a time parameter, when decision factors and alternatives may be corrected or fundamentally changed during some period. Indices of the risk of subjective judgment (information risk) evaluation are developed for given point, interval, and fuzzy expert judgments and probability distribution of expert judgments.