Global trends in tropical cyclone risk

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 2; no. 4; pp. 289 - 294
• Main Authors: Peduzzi, P., Chatenoux, B., Dao, H., De Bono, A., Herold, C., Kossin, J., Mouton, F., Nordbeck, O.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.04.2012; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/694; 704/844; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Climate effects; Demography; Disaster risk; Earth and Environmental Science; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Health risks; Mortality risk; Poverty; Tropical cyclones
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1410

The impact of tropical cyclones on humans depends on the number of people exposed and their vulnerability, as well as the frequency and intensity of storms. How will the cumulative effects of climate change, demography and vulnerability affect risk? Conventionally, reports assessing tropical cyclone risk trends are based on reported losses, but these figures are biased by improvements to information access. Here we present a new methodology based on thousands of physically observed events and related contextual parameters. We show that mortality risk depends on tropical cyclone intensity, exposure, levels of poverty and governance. Despite the projected reduction in the frequency of tropical cyclones, projected increases in both demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity over the next 20 years can be expected to greatly increase the number of people exposed per year and exacerbate disaster risk, despite potential progression in development and governance. Assessments of tropical cyclone risk trends are typically based on reported losses, which are biased by improvements in information access. Now research based on thousands of physically observed events and contextual factors shows that, despite projected reductions in tropical cyclone frequency, projected increases in demographic pressure and tropical cyclone intensity can be expected to exacerbate disaster risk.