Dynamic selection of forecast combiners

• Published in: Neurocomputing (Amsterdam) Vol. 218; pp. 37 - 50
• Main Authors: Sergio, Anderson T., de Lima, Tiago P.F., Ludermir, Teresa B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 19.12.2016
• Subjects: Chaotic time series; Dynamic selection; Time series forecasting; Time series forecasting ensemble; Time series forecasting; Chaotic time series; Dynamic selection; Time series forecasting ensemble
• ISSN: 0925-2312; 1872-8286
• DOI: 10.1016/j.neucom.2016.08.072

Time series forecasting is an important research field in machine learning. Since the literature shows several techniques for the solution of this problem, combining outputs of different models is a simple and robust strategy. However, even when using combiners, the experimenter may face the following dilemma: which technique should one use to combine the individual predictors? Inspired by classification and pattern recognition algorithms, this work presents a dynamic selection method of forecast combiners. In the dynamic selection, each test pattern is submitted to a certain combiner according to a nearest neighbor rule. The proposed method was used to forecast eight time series with chaotic behavior in short and long term. In general, the dynamic selection presented satisfactory results for all datasets.