Mathematical modeling of dengue epidemic: control methods and vaccination strategies

• Published in: Theory in biosciences = Theorie in den Biowissenschaften Vol. 138; no. 2; pp. 223 - 239
• Main Authors: Carvalho, Sylvestre Aureliano, da Silva, Stella Olivia, Charret, Iraziet da Cunha
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.11.2019; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aedes; Aedes aegypti; Animals; Bioinformatics; Biology; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Chemical control; Climate; Complex Systems; Computer Simulation; Culicidae; Dengue - epidemiology; Dengue - prevention & control; Dengue fever; Dengue Vaccines - therapeutic use; Epidemics; Evolutionary Biology; Fever; Humans; Immunization; Infectious diseases; Insecticides - pharmacology; Life Sciences; Mathematical and Computational Biology; Mathematical models; Models, Theoretical; Mosquito Vectors; Original Article; Oviposition - drug effects; Philosophy of Biology; Probability; Spreading; Temperature; Theoretical Ecology/Statistics; Vaccination; Controls; Dengue; Vaccine; Aedes aegypti
• ISSN: 1431-7613; 1611-7530; 1611-7530
• DOI: 10.1007/s12064-019-00273-7

Dengue is, in terms of death and economic cost, one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. So, its mathematical modeling can be a valuable tool to help us to understand the dynamics of the disease and to infer about its spreading by the proposition of control methods. In this paper, control strategies, which aim to eliminate the Aedes aegypti mosquito, as well as proposals for the vaccination campaign are evaluated. In our mathematical model, the mechanical control is accomplished through the environmental support capacity affected by a discrete function that represents the removal of breedings. Chemical control is carried out using insecticide and larvicide. The efficiency of vaccination is studied through the transfer of a fraction of individuals, proportional to the vaccination rate, from the susceptible to the recovered compartments. Our major find is that the dengue fever epidemic is only eradicated with the use of an immunizing vaccine because control measures, directed against its vector, are not enough to halt the disease spreading. Even when the infected mosquitoes are eliminated from the system, the susceptible ones are still present, and infected humans cause dengue fever to reappear in the human population.