Climate change impact on the viability of western sand lance during estivation in the Seto Inland Sea

• Published in: Landscape and ecological engineering Vol. 21; no. 2; pp. 247 - 256
• Main Authors: Shibata, Jun-ya, Sakai, Yoichi, Nishijima, Wataru
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tokyo Springer Japan 01.04.2025; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Ammodytes; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Chemical analysis; Civil Engineering; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Climate prediction; Condition factor; energy; Energy reserves; Environmental conditions; Environmental impact; Environmental Management; estivation; Fisheries; Fishery resources; Landscape Ecology; Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning; landscapes; Life Sciences; meta-analysis; mortality; Nature Conservation; Original Paper; Plant Ecology; Population decline; population dynamics; Sand; Seawater; summer; Survival; viability; Water analysis; Water temperature; Seto Inland Sea; RCP2.6; RCP8.5; Mortality rate; Sea bottom temperature; Climate change mitigation; Condition factor
• ISSN: 1860-1871; 1860-188X
• DOI: 10.1007/s11355-024-00637-2

The western sand lance ( Ammodytes japonicus ) is a valuable fishery resource in the Seto Inland Sea. Although it survives through summer by estivating, it faces the threat of population decline as seawater temperature increases at an alarming rate due to climate change. We applied data from meta-analyses and laboratory analyses to inform a climate-linked model of predicted survival to determine the impact of climate change on the persistence of A. japonicus through the end of the century. Our results suggest that the mortality rate of A. japonicus during estivation increases with elevated water temperature, and the initial condition factor at the onset of estivation is critical to the survival of estivating A. japonicus . Furthermore, our results indicate that climate change will pose serious challenges to the persistence of the A. japonicus population in the Seto Inland Sea in the twenty-first century if climate change mitigation measures are not implemented and the environmental conditions that promote accumulation of energy reserves in A. japonicus prior to estivation are not improved.