Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

• Published in: Energy conversion and management Vol. 46; no. 9; pp. 1393 - 1405
• Main Authors: Yalcinoz, T., Eminoglu, U.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2005; Elsevier
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering; Electrical power engineering; Exact sciences and technology; Load forecasting; Medium term; Neural networks; Operation. Load control. Reliability; Peak; Power distribution systems; Power networks and lines; Short term; Short term; Peak; Load forecasting; Medium term; Neural networks; Power distribution systems; Load distribution; Peak load; Demand forecasting; Neural network; Forecasting management; Learning; Electrical network; Power distribution; Load management; Distribution network
• ISSN: 0196-8904; 1879-2227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2004.07.005

Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey.