Revisiting forced migration: A machine learning perspective

This study is motivated by an interest in understanding which factors play an important role in forced migration abroad. I use machine learning methods that allow for more effective ways to estimate complex relationships, particularly with highly nonlinear data. There are three key findings of this...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEuropean Journal of Political Economy Vol. 70; p. 102044
Main Author Micevska, Maja
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.12.2021
Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects
Conflict
Displaced people
Forced migration
Internet
Lasso regression
Machine learning
Migration
Penetration
Political asylum
Political economy
Random forest
Refugees
Riots
N47
Forced migration
O15
F51
Lasso regression
Displaced people
Conflict
F22
Random forest
Refugees
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Summary:This study is motivated by an interest in understanding which factors play an important role in forced migration abroad. I use machine learning methods that allow for more effective ways to estimate complex relationships, particularly with highly nonlinear data. There are three key findings of this study. First, I document and test for the importance of the changing nature of conflict in Africa. My estimates show that riots are the most important type of conflict for explaining asylum applications, more important than battles or violence against civilians. Second, this paper is the first macrolevel study to investigate the role of the internet penetration rate in explaining forced migration flows and the first to show the importance of this factor in explaining asylum applications. Third, I find that country fixed effects are of primary importance in explaining forced migration flows. This finding suggests that a considerable variation in forced migration flows still remains to be explained. •Machine learning techniques are used to analyze forced migration flows.•Documents and tests for the importance of the changing nature of conflict in Africa.•Riots are the most important type of conflict for explaining asylum applications.•Internet penetration rate is important for explaining asylum applications.•Possible important determinants of forced migration are complex and country-specific.
ISSN:0176-2680
1873-5703
DOI:10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2021.102044