Spatial-temporal analysis of China's regional carbon intensity based on ST-IDA from 2000 to 2015

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production Vol. 238; p. 117874
• Main Authors: Song, Ce, Zhao, Tao, Wang, Juan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Ltd 20.11.2019
• Subjects: Carbon intensity; Economic spatial agglomeration; Spatial-temporal differences; ST-IDA; Carbon intensity; Economic spatial agglomeration; ST-IDA; Spatial-temporal differences
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.117874

To study the carbon intensity characteristics across regions in China, reveal the spatial differences and temporal dynamics of major impact factors, spatial-temporal index decomposition model (ST-IDA) based on a provincial panel data set for the period 2000–2015 was adopted to quantitatively explore the spatial-temporal differences of drivers contributed to the changes in carbon intensity across regions. Considering the spatial attributes of carbon emissions under regional economic association, spatial adjacency matrix was constructed and induced into a spatial autoregressive model to analyze the carbon intensity characteristics of different economic spatial agglomeration regions. 30 provinces were divided into 4 categories according to GDP per capita themselves and the surrounding provinces including high-value surrounded by high-value (HH region), high-value surrounded by low-value (HL region), low-value surrounded by high-value (LH region) and low-value surrounded by low-value (LL region). Results indicate that (a) there were significant differences in carbon intensity in different economic spatial agglomeration regions. The carbon intensity in LL region was significantly higher than that in other regions due to the much higher carbon intensity of industry sector; (b) the change in carbon intensity depends mainly on the industry and the transportation sector. In 2000–2005, the significant increase of transportation carbon intensity dominated the total change except in LL region. After 2005, the industry sector dominates the decline of carbon intensity in all regions; (c) energy intensity effect is the main reason for the spatial differences of carbon intensity. LL region has a higher potential for energy intensity decline; (d) temporally, energy intensity had a significant negative effect on carbon intensity growth of the regions. The industrial structure and energy structure effect were positive in all regions. Carbon coefficient effect showed a rise and then decline trend. •A multi-region spatial-temporal index decomposition analysis model is proposed.•The spatial differences and temporal dynamics of major impact factors of carbon intensity in 4 types of economic development regions in China are analyzed non-independently.•During 2000–2015, the carbon intensity showed a differentiated downward trend of each region, and it is mainly due to the industrial sector.•Energy intensity effect is the main reason for the spatial differences of carbon intensity of all four variables.•Temporally, energy intensity has the greatest negative effect on carbon intensity in all regions.