Effect of global warming on sea level rise: A modeling study

• Published in: Ecological complexity Vol. 32; pp. 99 - 110
• Main Authors: Shukla, J.B., Verma, Maitri, Misra, A.K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.12.2017
• Subjects: Atmospheric carbon dioxide; Global warming; Mathematical model; Sea level rise; Stability; Sea level rise; Global warming; Stability; Mathematical model; Atmospheric carbon dioxide
• ISSN: 1476-945X
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2017.10.007

•A nonlinear model is proposed to study the response of sea level to global warming.•The effect of sea level rise on the population dynamics is also investigated.•Stability analysis is carried out to determine the long-term behavior of system.•Numerical simulation explores the effect of key parameters on the system dynamics. Global mean sea level has been rising in response to global warming since the past few decades and is anticipated to potentially affect the coastal population. The main driver of global warming is the enhanced concentration of the heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In this paper, we propose a nonlinear mathematical model to study the effect of an increase in the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions on sea level rise and its effect on the human population. The long-term behavior of the proposed system is analyzed using stability theory of differential equations. The model analysis shows that an increase in the anthropogenic emission rate of carbon dioxide leads to increase in the equilibrium levels of surface temperature and sea water level. Further, it is found that the increase in anthropogenic emission rate of carbon dioxide and melting rate of ice sheets lead to decrease in the equilibrium level of human population as a result of crowding caused by the decrease in the total inhabitable land area due to sea level rise. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the effect of key parameters on the dynamics of the system.