Natural resources and climate change: A study of the potential impact on Manila clam in the Venice lagoon

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 645; pp. 419 - 430
• Main Authors: Ghezzo, Michol, Pellizzato, Michele, De Pascalis, Francesca, Silvestri, Silvia, Umgiesser, Georg
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 15.12.2018
• Subjects: Animals; Aquaculture - methods; Bivalvia - physiology; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Individual based model; Introduced Species; Larval settlement; Manila clam; Natural Resources; Sustainable management; Venice lagoon; Manila clam; Climate change; Sustainable management; Larval settlement; Individual based model; Venice lagoon
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.060

A crucial aspect in climate change is to understand how an ecosystem will adapt under different environmental conditions and how it will influence the ecological resources and the connected human activities. In this study, a numerical model reproduces the growth dynamics, dispersion and settlement of clam's larvae in the Venice lagoon. On the basis of the last IPCC scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, the model simulates the changes in larval settlement, showing how the geographical distribution and, consequently, the nursery area changes over time. Our results indicate that climate change will modify, not only the timing of the settlements (from spring–summer to winter autumn) and the spatial distribution of nursery areas (from central to southern lagoon), but also the absolute quantity of settled larvae in the lagoon. This can strongly affect aquaculture in terms of availability of seed and farming practice. Given that these changes are due to the variations in temperature and circulation, similar processes are likely to happen in other transitional environments all over the world affecting the global aquaculture resources. In this regard, the tool we developed could support local policymakers in the knowledge-based planning and sustainable management of clam aquaculture in vulnerable environments. [Display omitted] •Knowledge of nursery and natural settlement is crucial for shellfish farm management.•Combining hydro-bio-lithosphere for predicting Manila clams response to climate change.•Numerical modeling can reproduce larvae settlement dynamics and nursery vulnerability.•The model shows crucial features influencing larval settlings due to climate change.•Presented tool can be used to develop a clever sustainable adaptive management.