Reducing air pollution does not necessarily reduce related adults' mortality burden: Variations in 177 countries with different economic levels

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 933; p. 173037
• Main Authors: Zhao, Xiuling, Wu, Tong, Zhou, Weiqi, Han, Lijian, Neophytou, Andreas M.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 10.07.2024
• Subjects: Adult; Air Pollutants - analysis; Air Pollution - statistics & numerical data; Environmental Exposure - statistics & numerical data; Global Mortality Exposure Model; Humans; Mortality; Particulate Matter - analysis; PM2.5-related deaths; Sensitivity analysis; Socioeconomic drivers; Global Mortality Exposure Model; PM2.5-related deaths; Sensitivity analysis; Socioeconomic drivers; PM(2.5)-related deaths
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173037

Prolonged exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased mortality. However, reducing air pollution concentrations does not necessarily reduce the related burden of deaths. Here, we aim to estimate the variations in PM2.5-related mortality due to contributions from key factors – PM2.5 concentration, population exposure, and healthcare levels – for 177 countries from 2000 to 2018 at the 1-km grid scale according to the Global Mortality Exposure Model (GEMM) model. We find that global reductions in PM2.5-related deaths mainly come from high and upper-middle income countries, where lowered air pollutant concentration and better healthcare can offset mortality burdens caused by increasing exposed populations. Changes in population exposure to PM2.5 contribute the most (54 %) to change in global related deaths over the examined period, followed by changes in healthcare (−42 %) and pollution concentrations (4 %). The impacts vary across countries and regions within them due to other drivers, which are significantly influenced by development status. Policies aiming at reducing PM2.5 associated health risks need to account for country-specific balances of these key socioeconomic drivers. [Display omitted] •Global reductions in PM2.5-related deaths mainly come from well developed countries.•Changes in population contribute the most (54 %) to change in global related deaths.•Reducing level of pollution does not necessarily reduce the related deaths burden.•The impacts of pollution, population and healthcare level vary across countries.