Projection of the Near-Future PM2.5 in Northern Peninsular Southeast Asia under RCP8.5

• Published in: Atmosphere Vol. 13; no. 2; p. 305
• Main Authors: Amnuaylojaroen, Teerachai, Surapipith, Vanisa, Macatangay, Ronald C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2022
• Subjects: Air pollution; Atmospheric aerosols; Atmospheric chemistry; Biomass; biomass burning; Climate change; Climate models; Dry season; emission change; Emissions; Forecasting; Influence; Investigations; Modelling; NRCM; Outdoor air quality; Particulate matter; Particulate matter emissions; PM2.5; Pollutants; Precipitation; Radiation; Rainy season; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Seasons; Temperature; Wet season; Southeast Asia; Cambodia; Thailand; South Asia
• ISSN: 2073-4433; 2073-4433
• DOI: 10.3390/atmos13020305

Throughout the year, particularly during the dry season, the northern peninsula of Southeast Asia struggles with air pollution from PM2.5. In this study, we used the Nested Regional Climate and Chemistry Model (NRCM-Chem) to predict the PM2.5 concentrations over Southeast Asia’s northern peninsula during the years 2020–2029 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5. In general, the model reasonably shows a good result, including temperature, precipitation, and PM2.5 concentration, compared to the observation with an Index of Agreement (IOA) in the range of 0.63 to 0.80. However, there were some underestimations for modeled precipitation and temperature and an overestimation for modeled PM2.5 concentration. As a response to changes in climatic parameters and the emission of PM2.5’s precursors, PM2.5 concentrations tend to increase across the region in the range of (+1) to (+35) µg/m3 during the dry season (November to April) and decline in the range of (−3) to (−30) µg/m3 during the wet season (May to October). The maximum increase in PM2.5 concentrations were found in March by >40 µg/m3.