Meteorological Differences Characterizing Tornado Outbreak Forecasts of Varying Quality

Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are a major hazard to life and property for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. Improving tornado outbreak (TO) forecasts will help minimize risks associated with these major events. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying TO forecasts of varying quality, b...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAtmosphere Vol. 10; no. 1; p. 16
Main Authors Mercer, Andrew, Bates, Alyssa
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.01.2019
Subjects
Archives & records
Composite materials
False alarms
forecast quality
Mountains
Outbreaks
principal component analysis
Principal components analysis
Quality
Storm forecasting
Storms
Studies
Success
synoptic-scale diagnosis
tornado outbreaks
Tornadoes
Weather forecasting
United States > US
Mississippi
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Summary:Tornado outbreaks (TOs) are a major hazard to life and property for locations east of the Rocky Mountains. Improving tornado outbreak (TO) forecasts will help minimize risks associated with these major events. In this study, we present a methodology for quantifying TO forecasts of varying quality, based on Storm Prediction Center convective outlook forecasts, and provide synoptic and mesoscale composite analyses to identify important features characterizing these events. Synoptic-scale composites from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) are presented for TO forecasts at three forecast quality levels, H-class (high quality), M-class (medium quality), and L-class (low quality), as well as false alarm TO forecasts. H-class and false alarm TO forecasts share many meteorological similarities, particularly in the synoptic-scale, though false alarm events show less well-defined low-level synoptic-scale features. M- and L-class TOs present environments dominated by mesoscale thermodynamic processes (particularly dryline structures), contrasting H-class TOs which are clearly synoptically driven. Simulations of these composites reveal higher instability in M- and L-class TOs that lack key kinematic structures that characterize H-class TOs. The results presented offer important forecast feedback that can help inform future TO predictions and ultimately produce improved TO forecast quality.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos10010016