Evaluation of CMIP5 Climate Models Using Historical Surface Air Temperatures in Central Asia

Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inAtmosphere Vol. 12; no. 3; p. 308
Main Authors Xiong, Yufei, Ta, Zhijie, Gan, Miao, Yang, MeiLin, Chen, Xi, Yu, Ruide, Disse, Markus, Yu, Yang
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Basel MDPI AG 01.03.2021
Subjects
air surface temperature
Air temperature
Analysis
central Asia
Climate change
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climate variability
CMIP5
Coefficients
Correlation coefficient
Correlation coefficients
Distribution
Empirical analysis
Environmental impact
Future climates
Global warming
Historic temperatures
Historical account
History
Intercomparison
Mathematical models
Orthogonal functions
performance evaluation
Precipitation
Principal components analysis
Regional climates
Simulation
Spatial analysis
Spatial distribution
Standard deviation
Surface-air temperature relationships
Temperature
Trend analysis
Eurasia
China
Uzbekistan
Central Asia
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
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Summary:Using historical data compiled by the Climate Research Unit, spatial and temporal analysis, trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and Taylor diagram analysis were applied to test the ability of 24 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to accurately simulate the annual mean surface air temperature in central Asia from the perspective of the average climate state and climate variability. Results show that each model can reasonably capture the spatial distribution characteristics of the surface air temperature in central Asia but cannot accurately describe the regional details of climate change impacts. Some of the studied models, including CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-H, could better simulate the high- and low-value centers and the contour distribution of the surface air temperature. Taylor diagram analysis showed that the root mean square errors of all models were less than 3, the standard deviations were between 8.36 and 13.45, and the spatial correlation coefficients were greater than 0.96. EOF analysis showed that the multi-model ensemble can accurately reproduce the surface air temperature characteristics in central Asia from 1901 to 2005, including the rising periods and the fluctuations of the north and south inversion phases. Overall, this study provides a valuable reference for future climate prediction studies in central Asia.
ISSN:2073-4433
2073-4433
DOI:10.3390/atmos12030308