Benchmarking Brexit: How the British Decision to Leave Shapes EU Public Opinion

• Published in: Journal of common market studies Vol. 55; no. S1; pp. 38 - 53
• Main Author: De Vries, Catherine E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2017
• Subjects: Aftermath; Costs; EU membership; Labor parties; Political culture; Prime ministers; Public opinion; Referendums; Uncertainty; United Kingdom > UK; Europe
• ISSN: 0021-9886; 1468-5965
• DOI: 10.1111/jcms.12579

On 23 June 2016, by a small majority the British population voted to leave the European Union (EU), a decision that shocked the political establishment in London, Brussels and beyond. Immediately after the vote, the pound fell sharply as uncertainty among investors about Britain’s economic future started to grow. Politically, the situation was not much different. Not only did Prime Minister David Cameron resign, but the referendum result unmasked deep divisions between different regions and amongst the constituent components of the United Kingdom as well as within the two major political forces in Westminster, the Conservative and Labour parties. The new Prime Minister Theresa May was confronted with the daunting task of negotiating British withdrawal from the EU whilst keeping her party and country together at a time when the exact economic costs of Brexit are still highly uncertain. The British economy initially weathered the vote and its immediate aftermath better than expected, perhaps in part because of the May government’s decision to delay the triggering of Article 50. Yet, long-term assessments of a post-Brexit British economy are less rosy.