Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach

• Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association Vol. 80; no. 390; p. 277
• Main Authors: Isserman, A M, Plane, D A, Rogerson, P A, Beaumont, P M
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States 01.06.1985
• Subjects: Americas; Demography; Developed Countries; Developing Countries; Economics; Emigration and Immigration; Employment; Forecasting; Health Manpower; Methods; Models, Economic; Models, Theoretical; North America; Population; Population Dynamics; Socioeconomic Factors; Statistics as Topic; Time Factors; United States; Americas; United States; North America; Models, Theoretical; Americas; United States; Labor Force; Migration; Methodological Studies; Migration, Internal; Human Resources; Research Methodology; North America; Population Forecast; Socioeconomic Factors; Economic Factors; Northern America; Developed Countries; Economic Model; Time Factors; Economic Conditions; Population; Developing Countries; Estimation Technics; Demographic Factors; Macroeconomic Factors; Population Dynamics
• ISSN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1985.10478109

"The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach of modeling interstate migration [in the United States]. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to resently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic-economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of labor-force age."