Linear Extrapolation Models of Lung Cancer Risk Associated with Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke

This paper presents a model to estimate the number of lung cancer deaths due to ETS exposure among the 1992 U.S. never-smoking population, based on downward linear extrapolation from the estimated risks of active smokers. The model uses several recently available data sources including an extensive...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inRegulatory toxicology and pharmacology Vol. 28; no. 2; pp. 106 - 114
Main Authors Rosenbaum, Wilfred L., Sterling, Theodor D., Weinkam, James J.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published San Diego, CA Elsevier Inc 01.10.1998
Elsevier
Subjects
Age Distribution
Biological and medical sciences
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Environmental Exposure - adverse effects
Female
Humans
Lung Neoplasms - mortality
Male
Medical sciences
Models, Biological
Risk Assessment - methods
Sex Distribution
Tobacco Smoke Pollution - adverse effects
Tobacco, tobacco smoking
Toxicology
United States
United States
North America
America
Human
Lung disease
Respiratory disease
Toxicity
Mortality
Risk
Malignant tumor
Bronchopulmonary
Non smoker
Extrapolation
Passive smoking
Bronchus disease
Models
Linear estimation
Public health
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Summary:This paper presents a model to estimate the number of lung cancer deaths due to ETS exposure among the 1992 U.S. never-smoking population, based on downward linear extrapolation from the estimated risks of active smokers. The model uses several recently available data sources including an extensive review of the published literature on indoor concentration of ETS constituents measured under real-world conditions and data from the National Mortality Followback Survey and the National Health Interview Survey which furnish nationally representative estimates of the distribution of the U.S. population and the persons who died from lung cancer by sex, age, and smoking status. The linear extrapolation model estimates that five male and six female excess lung cancer deaths due to ETS exposure would be expected in the 1992 U.S. population of over 52 million never smokers age 35 and over. Explanations for differences between the results of our downward extrapolation model and those of others are presented.
ISSN:0273-2300
1096-0295
DOI:10.1006/rtph.1998.1216