Predicting Raw Milk Price Based on Depth Time Series Features for Consumer Behavior Analysis

• Published in: Sustainability Vol. 15; no. 8; p. 6647
• Main Authors: Li, Zongyu, Zuo, Anmin, Li, Cuixia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.04.2023
• Subjects: Artificial intelligence; Comparative analysis; Consumer behavior; Dairy industry; Economic aspects; Neural networks; Price elasticity; Time-series analysis; China
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su15086647

The dairy industry has a long supply chain that involves dairy farmers, enterprises, consumers, and the government. The stable growth of consumer groups is the driving force for the sustainable development of the dairy industry. However, in recent years, sustainable development of the dairy industry has faced great challenges due to the constant changes in the global climate environment and the increasing uncertainty of the international economic environment. Therefore, it is essential to systematically monitor and accurately predict the consumption market of dairy products to ensure that the government, dairy enterprises, and dairy farmers can share information in a timely manner and take effective measures to cope with the changes in the dairy consumption market without disturbing the normal pricing mechanism of the dairy market. The purpose of the conducted research is to systematically monitor and accurately predict the dairy product consumption market while consistently delivering dependable forecasts of consumer behavior in the dairy industry. In this paper, we proposed a raw milk price prediction framework (RMP-CPR) to analyze consumer behavior based on the relationship between milk price and dairy consumption. This study concludes that dairy consumption behavior can be predicted accurately by predicting the price of raw milk based on the proposed framework (RMP-CPR). Our research explores a new angle for studying consumer behavior. The results can assist dairy enterprises in developing accurate marketing strategies based on the forecast results of dairy consumption, thereby enhancing their competitiveness in the market. Policymakers can also use the forecast results of the development trend of the dairy consumption market to adjust corresponding policies in a timely manner. This can help to balance the interests among consumers, dairy enterprises, dairy farmers, and other relevant stakeholders and effectively maintain the sustainable and healthy development of the dairy market.