A New Risk Prediction Model for Detecting Endoscopic Activity of Ulcerative Colitis

• Published in: Gut and liver Vol. 18; no. 5; pp. 834 - 844
• Main Authors: Guan, Guoyu, Zhuoga, Sangdan, Zheng, Songbai, Xu, Kangqiao, Weng, Tingwen, Qian, Wensi, Ji, Danian, Yu, Xiaofeng
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Korea (South) Editorial Office of Gut and Liver 15.09.2024; Gastroenterology Council for Gut and Liver; 거트앤리버 소화기연관학회협의회
• Subjects: Adult; blood marker; China; Colitis, Ulcerative - diagnosis; Colonoscopy - methods; Colonoscopy - statistics & numerical data; endoscopy; fecal marker; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Nomograms; Occult Blood; Original; Predictive Value of Tests; Risk Assessment - methods; ROC Curve; ulcerative colitis; 내과학; China; Endoscopy; Blood marker; Fecal marker; Nomograms; Ulcerative colitis
• ISSN: 1976-2283; 2005-1212; 2005-1212
• DOI: 10.5009/gnl230370

Ulcerative colitis (UC) is an incurable, relapsing-remitting inflammatory disease that increases steadily. Mucosal healing has become the primary therapeutic objective for UC. Nevertheless, endoscopic assessments are invasive, expensive, time-consuming, and inconvenient. Therefore, it is crucial to develop a noninvasive predictive model to monitor endoscopic activity in patients with UC. Clinical data of 198 adult patients with UC were collected from January 2016 to August 2022 at Huadong Hospital, China. Patients with UC were randomly divided into the training cohort (70%, n=138) and the validation cohort (30%, n=60). The receiver operating characteristic curve value for the training group was 0.858 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.781 to 0.936), whereas it was 0.845 (95% CI, 0.731 to 0.960) for the validation group. The calibration curve employed the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p>0.05) to demonstrate the consistency between the predicted and the actual probabilities in the nomogram of these two groups. The decision curve analysis validated that the nomogram had clinical usefulness. The nomogram, which incorporated activated partial thromboplastin time, fecal occult blood test, β2-globulin level, and fibrinogen degradation products, served as a prospective tool for evaluating UC activity in clinical practices.