Model Structure Adequacy Analysis: Selecting Models on the Basis of Their Ability to Answer Scientific Questions

• Published in: Synthese (Dordrecht) Vol. 163; no. 3; pp. 357 - 370
• Main Authors: Taper, Mark L., Staples, David F., Shepard, Bradley B.
• Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer 01.08.2008; Springer Netherlands; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Biology; Conservation biology; Demography; Ecological modeling; Ecology; Education; Empiricism; Epistemology; Epistemology. Philosophy of science. Theory of knowledge; Error rates; Fisheries management; Hypothesis testing; Logic; Metaphysics; Modeling; Natural resources; Parametric models; Philosophy; Philosophy of Language; Philosophy of Science; Population; Population estimates; Science; Simulations; Trout; Wildlife conservation; Wildlife management; United States > US; Montana; Chicago Illinois; Multi-model inference; Bull trout; Model selection; Model development; Monitoring; Model identification; Science philosophy
• ISSN: 0039-7857; 1573-0964
• DOI: 10.1007/s11229-007-9299-x

Models carry the meaning of science. This puts a tremendous burden on the process of model selection. In general practice, models are selected on the basis of their relative goodness of fit to data penalized by model complexity. However, this may not be the most effective approach for selecting models to answer a specific scientific question because model fit is sensitive to all aspects of a model, not just those relevant to the question. Model Structural Adequacy analysis is proposed as a means to select models based on their ability to answer specific scientific questions given the current understanding of the relevant aspects of the real world.