Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird

• Published in: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) Vol. 359; no. 6371; pp. 83 - 86
• Main Authors: Bay, Rachael A, Harrigan, Ryan J, Underwood, Vinh Le, Gibbs, H Lisle, Smith, Thomas B, Ruegg, Kristen
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science 05.01.2018
• Subjects: Acclimatization - genetics; Adaptation; Animal breeding; Animal Migration; Animals; Biodiversity; Biodiversity loss; Biological evolution; Birds; Breeding; Climate; Climate adaptation; Climate Change; Climate models; Exploratory behavior; Gene frequency; Genome; Migratory birds; Model accuracy; Passeriformes - genetics; Population decline; Population Dynamics; Population genetics; Population studies; Populations; Prediction models; Songbirds - genetics; Species
• ISSN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aan4380

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts.