Sensitivity analysis on a chance node with more than two branches

Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two-branch decomposition is not appropriat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inMedical decision making Vol. 19; no. 4; p. 499
Main Authors Sendi, P P, Clemen, R T
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States 01.10.1999
Subjects
Decision Support Techniques
Decision Trees
HIV Infections - classification
Humans
Methods
Probability
Sensitivity and Specificity
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Summary:Sensitivity analysis is an essential part of decision analysis. The literature on medical decision analysis suggests the use of two-branch chance nodes in decision trees to avoid logical inconsistencies during sensitivity analysis. The authors show that the two-branch decomposition is not appropriate for sensitivity analysis when multiple outcomes from a single state cannot be disentangled into a sensible sequence of events. They recommend retaining the natural structure of the tree and propose two sensitivity-analysis methods for use on chance nodes with three or more branches.
ISSN:0272-989X
DOI:10.1177/0272989X9901900418