Earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey: seismotectonic b and Dc-values and precursory quiescence Z-value

• Published in: Frontiers of earth science Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 215 - 236
• Main Author: ÖZTÜRK, S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beijing Higher Education Press 01.03.2018; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: b-value; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; earthquake hazard; Earthquake prediction; Earthquakes; Eastern Anatolia; Empirical analysis; Fault lines; Fault zones; Faults; fractal dimension; Geological faults; Geological hazards; Mathematical analysis; Parameters; Precursors; precursory seismic quiescence; Regional analysis; Regions; Regression analysis; Research Article; Seismic activity; Seismic hazard; Seismicity; Temporal variations; Turkey; fractal dimension; earthquake hazard; precursory seismic quiescence; Eastern Anatolia; value
• ISSN: 2095-0195; 2095-0209
• DOI: 10.1007/s11707-017-0642-3

The Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey is one of the most seismically and tectonically active regions due to the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Thus, the main goal of this study is to analyze the regional and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the Eastern Anatolia in terms of the seismotectonic b-value, fractal dimension Dc-value, precursory seismic quiescence Z-value, and their interrelationships. This study also seeks to obtain a reliable empirical relation between b and Dc-values and to evaluate the temporal changes of these parameters as they relate to the earthquake potential of the region. A more up-to-date relation of D c = 2.55 − 0.39 * b is found with a very strong negative correlation coefficient ( r=−0.95) by using the orthogonal regression method. The b-values less than 1.0 and the Dc-values greater than 2.2 are observed in the Northeast Anatolian Fault Zone, A kale, Erzurum, I d r and Çald ran Faults, Do ubeyaz t Fault Zone, around the Genç Fault, the western part of the Bitlis-Zagros Thrust Zone, Pülümür and Karakoçan Faults, and the Sancak-Uzunp nar Fault Zone. In addition, the regions having small b-values and large Z-values are calculated around the Genç, Pülümür and Karakoçan Faults as well as the Sancak-Uzunp nar Fault Zone. Remarkably, the combinations of these seismotectonic parameters could reveal the earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian Region of Turkey, thus creating an increased interest in these anomaly regions.