Your opinion on climate change might not be as common as you think

• Published in: Nature climate change Vol. 3; no. 4; pp. 334 - 337
• Main Authors: Leviston, Z., Walker, I., Morwinski, S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.04.2013; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 704/106/694; 706/689/477; Climate Change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Environment; Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice; Human ecology; Human ecology and demography; letter; Political sociology; Public opinion; Sociology; Australia; Media; Survey; Climate warming; Public Opinion; Cause
• ISSN: 1758-678X; 1758-6798
• DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1743

Political and media debate on the existence and causes of climate change often rests on claims about what most citizens really think. New research demonstrates that people overestimate how common their own opinion is, and when they do they are less likely to change their view. People also overestimate how many reject the existence of climate change. Political and media debate on the existence and causes of climate change has become increasingly factious in several western countries, often resting on claims and counter-claims about what most citizens really think. There are several well-established phenomena in psychology about how people perceive the prevalence of opinions, including the false consensus effect 1 (a tendency to overestimate how common one’s ‘own’ opinion is) and pluralistic ignorance 2 (where most people privately reject an opinion, but assume incorrectly that most others accept it). We investigated these biases in people’s opinions about the existence and causes of climate change. In two surveys conducted 12 months apart in Australia ( n  = 5,036; n  = 5,030), respondents were asked their own opinion about the nature of climate change, and then asked to estimate levels of opinion among the general population. We demonstrate that opinions about climate change are subject to strong false consensus effects, that people grossly overestimate the numbers of people who reject the existence of climate change in the broader community, and that people with high false consensus bias are less likely to change their opinions.