Simulation of climate-adaptation responses to rainfall variability on rainfed yield anomalies

• Published in: Environmental and sustainability indicators Vol. 22; p. 100411
• Main Authors: Barati, Masoud K., Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy, Nikoo, Mohammad Reza
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Inc 01.06.2024; Elsevier
• Subjects: AquaCrop; Climate-resilient agriculture; Sowing date; Supplemental irrigation; Climate-resilient agriculture; Sowing date; AquaCrop; Supplemental irrigation
• ISSN: 2665-9727; 2665-9727
• DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2024.100411

Climate adaptation offers promising approaches to cope with the detrimental impacts of climate change on rainfed agriculture, intending to mitigate yield losses and safeguard food security worldwide. This is especially critical in the semi-arid tropics, characterized by highly variable and often intensified rainfall regimes. The current study explored the potential contribution of climate adaptation measures, specifically sowing windows and supplemental irrigation (SI), to offset the impacts of rainfall variability on rainfed crop yield in the Thondamuthur block, India. Under the proposed adaptation measures, this study analyzed the relationship between historical rainfall variability (1951–2019) and rice, maize, and sorghum yield anomalies. A seamlessly integrated framework was developed to link rainfall variability analysis with yield response simulations using the AquaCrop model. Rainfall classification analysis indicated an increase in rainfall availability during the Kharif season and a decrease during the Rabi season in Period III compared with the baseline. The late-sown Kharif and early-sown Rabi crops demonstrated effective climate adaptation, with the 27th and 38th SMWs identified as optimal climate-adapted sowing weeks, respectively. Significant decreases of 10% and 12% in SI requirements were observed in early-sown Rabi maize and sorghum, respectively. The results showed that substituting Rabi rice and maize with Rabi sorghum led to reductions of 90% and 75% in seasonal SI requirements, respectively. The early-sown Rabi rice and maize contributed to 88% and 12% relative yield increases, respectively, compared with the normal-sown. This study highlights the effectiveness of climate adaptation measures in enabling farmers to withstand climate-induced anomalies. •Explored yield responses to climate change under proposed adaptation measures: sowing windows and supplemental irrigation.•The AqauCrop, a crop growth simulation model, was used to simulate the climate adaptation measures.•Optimal climate-adapted sowing weeks for three rainfed crops are the 27th and 38th SMW during the Kharif and Rabi seasons.•Early-sown Rabi rice and maize yields were 88% and 12% more than normal-sown due to climate-adapted early sowing practices.