Evaluation of seasonal site-level demography and management for northern bobwhite using integrated population models

• Published in: Ecological modelling Vol. 475; p. 110211
• Main Authors: Sinnott, Emily A., Thompson, Frank R., Weegman, Mitch D., Thompson, Thomas R., Mosloff, Alisha R., Hedges, R. Kyle, Loncarich, Frank L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.01.2023
• Subjects: Annual cycle; Colinus virginianus; Habitat management; Integrated population model; Native grasslands; Northern bobwhite; Population dynamics; Northern bobwhite; Habitat management; Native grasslands; Integrated population model; Colinus virginianus; Population dynamics; Annual cycle
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110211

•Multiple seasonal vital rates contribute to short-term declines in northern bobwhite abundance.•The number of young hatched per female was weakly correlated with annual changes in abundance.•Female fecundity and adult breeding season survival were greater on native grassland sites.•Unmeasured processes were captured by a scaling parameter and influenced interpretation of observed dynamics. Understanding the effects of landscape management on northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population growth requires information on seasonal- and stage-specific demographic parameters linked across the full annual cycle. We evaluated site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites in southwest Missouri and compared differences between three extensively and two intensively managed sites from 2016 to 2019. Extensively managed sites were continuous tracts of native prairie. Intensively managed sites were composed of smaller native and non-native grassland units interspersed with strip crops, food plots, and woody field borders. We radio-marked adults and broods to estimate survival and productivity, conducted spring whistle counts to estimate abundance and developed a two-season, two-stage, two-sex integrated population model to estimate population dynamics. The number of young hatched per female-incubated nest was greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. Six-month period survival of adults during the breeding season was also greater on the three extensively managed sites compared to the two intensively managed sites. One hundred-day juvenile breeding season survival varied among sites and was highest on Talbot, compared to juvenile breeding season survival on the other four study sites. Six-month, non-breeding season period survival was lowest on the two smallest extensively managed sites, Stony Point Prairie and Shelton Conservation Area compared to non-breeding season survival on the other three study sites. Annual changes in bobwhite abundance were weakly correlated with female fecundity, though this positive relationship was stronger on extensively managed sites. Intensively managed sites exhibited low mean fecundity and breeding season adult survival relative to those that resulted in a stable population. Populations across sites declined from 2016 to 2019 and estimates of annual population growth rates overlapped across sites. Differences between observed changes in bobwhite abundance and estimates of observed demographic rates at some sites suggest unmeasured processes such as movement or bias associated with data and model assumptions influenced estimated vital rates. Overall, our integrated population model was an effective tool for understanding site-level seasonal dynamics and population growth of bobwhites. Based on comparisons of demography between extensively and intensively managed sites, we suggest increased native grassland cover managed with prescribed fire, low intensity grazing, and high mowing may increase bobwhite nesting success and breeding season adult survival, however, achieving stable or increasing rates of population growth may also require increased juvenile breeding season and non-breeding season survival.