Suitability mapping of native tree species in dry-hot valleys of Yunnan based on InVEST-MaxEnt coupled modeling: model validation framework with native tree species actual distribution and seed germination

• Published in: Frontiers in plant science Vol. 16; p. 1577623
• Main Authors: Xie, Meng, Song, Xiaobo, Zhang, Xuexing, Ma, Yongpeng, Song, Zhilin, Li, Fengjuan, Li, Wei, Fan, Linyuan, Ma, Hong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Switzerland Frontiers Media S.A 2025
• Subjects: dry-hot valleys; InVEST-MaxEnt coupled modeling; model validation framework; native tree species; suitability mapping; suitability mapping; InVEST-MaxEnt coupled modeling; dry-hot valleys; model validation framework; native tree species
• ISSN: 1664-462X; 1664-462X
• DOI: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1577623

The target valleys along the Jinsha, Nujiang, Lancang, and Yuanjiang Rivers exhibit acute human-land conflicts and ecosystem vulnerability. Predicting the distribution of potential suitable habitats for native tree species in Yunnan Province provides basin-scale insights for the management of ecosystems in dry and hot valleys, thereby advancing restoration planning in dry-hot valleys. This study investigates native tree species suitability in Yunnan's dry-hot valleys using an integrated MaxEnt-InVEST modeling framework. Temperature and precipitation emerged as dominant bioclimatic controls, with optimal species occurrence (1 000-2 500 m) showing negative elevation correlation. Four native tree species ( , , and ) displayed fragmented suitable areas along mountainous riparian zones, while habitat quality hotspots mainly covered non-urbanized regions, avoiding central urban clusters and northeastern/southeastern karst zones. The coupled model demonstrated significantly improved accuracy compared to the standalone MaxEnt by incorporating land-use impacts, with Yuanmou County case analysis confirming the enhanced predictive capability through actual distribution patterns. Spatial prioritization identified core planting clusters in central/southeastern valleys, though fragmented by agricultural encroachment. This methodology provides a cost-effective solution for vegetation restoration planning in ecologically fragile dry-hot ecosystems. The research results can provide scientific support for the restoration of degraded ecosystems in dry-hot valleys of Yunnan Province, the national Afforestation program and soil and water conservation projects.