Study on Exchange Rate Forecasting with Stacked Optimization Based on a Learning Algorithm

• Published in: Mathematics (Basel) Vol. 12; no. 4; p. 614
• Main Authors: Xie, Weiwei, Wu, Haifeng, Liu, Boyu, Mu, Shengdong, Nadia, Nedjah
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.02.2024
• Subjects: Accuracy; Algorithms; Data mining; Deep learning; EMD; Empirical analysis; exchange rate prediction; Forecasting; Forecasts and trends; Foreign exchange markets; Foreign exchange rates; LSTM; Machine learning; Mathematical models; Model accuracy; Neural networks; Optimization; Stochastic models; Time series; Trends; China
• ISSN: 2227-7390; 2227-7390
• DOI: 10.3390/math12040614

The time series of exchange rate fluctuations are characterized by non-stationary and nonlinear features, and forecasting using traditional linear or single-machine models can cause significant bias. Based on this, the authors propose the combination of the advantages of the EMD and LSTM models to reduce the complexity by analyzing and decomposing the time series and forming a new model, EMD-LSTM-SVR, with a stronger generalization ability. More than 30,000 units of data on the USD/CNY exchange rate opening price from 2 January 2015 to 30 April 2022 were selected for an empirical demonstration of the model’s accuracy. The empirical results showed that the prediction of the exchange rate fluctuation with the EMD-LSTM-SVR model not only had higher accuracy, but also ensured that most of the predicted positions deviated less from the actual positions. The new model had a stronger generalization ability, a concise structure, and a high degree of ability to fit nonlinear features, and it prevented gradient vanishing and overfitting to achieve a higher degree of prediction accuracy.