Model spread and progress in climate modelling

Convergence of model projections is often considered by climate scientists to be an important objective in so far as it may indicate the robustness of the models’ core hypotheses. Consequently, the range of climate projections from a multi-model ensemble, called “model spread”, is often expected to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inEuropean journal for philosophy of science Vol. 11; no. 3
Main Authors Jebeile, Julie, Barberousse, Anouk
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.09.2021
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Education
Epistemology
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Paper in Philosophy of Science in Practice
Philosophy
Philosophy of Science
Reduction
Scientific progress
Climate modelling
Model spread
Robustness
Model independence
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Summary:Convergence of model projections is often considered by climate scientists to be an important objective in so far as it may indicate the robustness of the models’ core hypotheses. Consequently, the range of climate projections from a multi-model ensemble, called “model spread”, is often expected to reduce as climate research moves forward. However, the successive Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate no reduction in model spread, whereas it is indisputable that climate science has made improvements in its modelling. In this paper, after providing a detailed explanation of the situation, we describe an epistemological setting in which a steady (and even slightly increased) model spread is not doomed to be seen as negative, and is indeed compatible with a desirable evolution of climate models taken individually. We further argue that, from the perspective of collective progress, as far as the improvement of the products of a multi-model ensemble (e.g. means) is concerned, reduction of model spread is of lower priority than model independence.
ISSN:1879-4912
1879-4920
DOI:10.1007/s13194-021-00387-0