Seismic risk and loss estimation for the building stock in Isfahan: part II—hazard analysis and risk assessment

• Published in: Bulletin of earthquake engineering Vol. 19; no. 4; pp. 1739 - 1763
• Main Authors: Kohrangi, Mohsen, Bazzurro, Paolo, Vamvatsikos, Dimitrios
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.03.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Building codes; Civil Engineering; Disaster management; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earthquakes; Emergency preparedness; Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology; Environmental risk; Fragility; Geological hazards; Geology; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hazard assessment; Hydrogeology; Insurance policies; Mitigation; Original Article; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Risk reduction; Seismic activity; Seismic design; Seismic hazard; Spatial distribution; Stock assessment; Structural Geology; Urban areas; Urban planning; Vulnerability; Urban risk assessment; Earthquake; Iran; Isfahan
• ISSN: 1570-761X; 1573-1456
• DOI: 10.1007/s10518-020-01037-1

The second part of a seismic risk assessment study for the Iranian city of Isfahan is presented, focusing on the description of the hazard, the risk analysis, and the discussion of the results. This study utilizes the building exposure model, the fragility and the vulnerability curves illustrated in the companion paper. The earthquake occurrence source model adopted is based on the EMME14 hazard study. The site effects accounting for the soil nonlinear behavior are modeled by means of a Vs 30 map derived from the topographical slope. The validity of this map is tested based on the local surface geology and geotechnical reports. The probabilistic seismic hazard maps for different return periods that account for site effects are generated and compared with the design spectra mandated by the Iranian national seismic design code. In addition, direct seismic monetary and human losses are estimated for two earthquake scenarios and also for 100- and 475-year return periods. We show loss maps and loss curves, offering insights on the most vulnerable building classes and the spatial distribution of the estimated losses. The results provide a basis for pre- and post-disaster emergency planning, for global and local urban planning, as well as for conceiving adequate risk mitigation strategies including devising fair earthquake insurance policies. This study may also serve as a blueprint for carrying out similar work in other urban areas of the Middle East.