No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide...

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Published inNature climate change Vol. 14; no. 6; pp. 573 - 585
Main Authors Nitzbon, Jan, Schneider von Deimling, Thomas, Aliyeva, Mehriban, Chadburn, Sarah E., Grosse, Guido, Laboor, Sebastian, Lee, Hanna, Lohmann, Gerrit, Steinert, Norman J., Stuenzi, Simone M., Werner, Martin, Westermann, Sebastian, Langer, Moritz
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.06.2024
Nature Publishing Group
Subjects
704/106/125
704/106/47
704/106/694
Ablation
Boreal ecosystems
Climate
Climate Change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Cryosphere
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth cryosphere
Environment
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Global warming
Permafrost
Permafrost thaws
Perspective
Safety margins
Arctic region
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Summary:Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks. It has been postulated that there is a threshold temperature above which permafrost will reach a global tipping point, causing accelerated thaw and global collapse. Here it is argued that permafrost-thaw feedbacks are dominated by local- to regional-scale processes, but this also means there is no safety margin.
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ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4