Distribution system reliability assessment using hierarchical Markov modeling

• Published in: IEEE transactions on power delivery Vol. 11; no. 4; pp. 1929 - 1934
• Main Authors: Brown, R.E., Gupta, S., Christie, R.D., Venkata, S.S., Fletcher, R.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York, NY IEEE 01.10.1996; Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Availability; Customer service; Disturbances. Regulation. Protection; Electrical engineering. Electrical power engineering; Electrical power engineering; Exact sciences and technology; Hidden Markov models; Power networks and lines; Power quality; Power system faults; Power system modeling; Power system protection; Power system reliability; Power system restoration; Predictive models; Availability; Analysis method; Markovian system; Electrical network; Software; Hierarchical system; Reliability; Modeling; Service quality; Distribution network
• ISSN: 0885-8977; 1937-4208
• DOI: 10.1109/61.544278

Distribution system reliability assessment is concerned with power availability and power quality at each customer's service entrance. This paper presents a new method, termed hierarchical Markov modeling (HMM), which can perform predictive distribution system reliability assessment. HMM is unique in that it decomposes the reliability model based on power system topology, integrated protection systems and individual protection devices. This structure, which easily accommodates the effects of backup protection, fault isolation and load restoration, is compared to simpler reliability models. HMM is then used to assess the reliability of an existing utility distribution system and to explore the reliability impact of several design improvement options.