Convex model for gross domestic product-based dynamic earthquake loss assessment method

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) Vol. 60; no. 2; pp. 589 - 604
• Main Authors: Jia, Lizhe, Li, Hui, Duan, Zhongdong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 2012; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Civil Engineering; Disasters; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Earthquake damage; Earthquakes; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Environmental Management; Exact sciences and technology; GDP; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Gross Domestic Product; Gross national product; Ground motion; Hydrogeology; Losses; Natural Hazards; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Original Paper; Seismic activity; China, People's Rep., Zhejiang Prov., Ningbo; GDP; Uncertainty; Convex model; Sensitivity analysis; Earthquake loss estimation; acceleration; models; sensitivity analysis; b value; ground motion; earthquakes; uncertainties
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0028-x

Ground motion intensity was presented as Modified Mercalli Intensity in gross domestic product (GDP)-based earthquake loss assessment method, and the variable uncertainties and the variation of GDP with time were neglected. In this study, the hazard-loss/GDP relation was determined based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), and the uncertainties of PGA and the hazard-loss/GDP relation were modeled with the Envelope Bound Convex Model and the curves of GDP with time were also derived. Finally, the earthquake loss of Ningbo city was estimated and disaggregated,and sensitivity of uncertain variables was investigated. The results show that the loss with Chen method locates in the lower half intervals of convex analysis results, and the most loss is from frequent earthquake. Hazard-Loss/GDP relation gives the most contribution to loss uncertainty, and the reminder sequence of sensitivity is the annual occurrence rate v , the b value and the upper bound magnitude M u .