The impact of climate variability on infectious disease transmission in China: Current knowledge and further directions

• Published in: Environmental research Vol. 173; pp. 255 - 261
• Main Authors: Yi, Liping, Xu, Xin, Ge, Wenxin, Xue, Haibin, Li, Jin, Li, Daoyuan, Wang, Chunping, Wu, Haixia, Liu, Xiaobo, Zheng, Dashan, Chen, Zhe, Liu, Qiyong, Bi, Peng, Li, Jing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier Inc 01.06.2019
• Subjects: China; Climate Change; Communicable Diseases; Dengue; Environmental Exposure; Health burden; Humans; Humidity; Incidence; Infectious disease; Temperature; China; RR; DF; BD; SARIMA; ENM; GLM; P. vivax; Infectious disease; China; O. hupensis; HFRS; WHO; GEE; CI; DLNM; Health burden; SOI; PCA; GIS; Climate change; GAM; HFMD; ARIMA; JE; ZIPR model
• ISSN: 0013-9351; 1096-0953
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2019.03.043

Climate change may lead to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases and pose public health challenges to human health and the already overloaded healthcare system. It is therefore important to review current knowledge and identify further directions in China, the largest developing country in the world. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to examine the relationship between climate variability and infectious disease transmission in China in the new millennium. Literature was identified using the following MeSH terms and keywords: climatic variables [temperature, precipitation, rainfall, humidity, etc.] and infectious disease [viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases]. Fifty-eight articles published from January 1, 2000 to May 30, 2018 were included in the final analysis, including bacterial diarrhea, dengue, malaria, Japanese encephalitis, HFRS, HFMD, Schistosomiasis. Each 1 °C rise may lead to 3.6%–14.8% increase in the incidence of bacillary dysentery disease in south China. A 1 °C rise was corresponded to an increase of 1.8%–5.9% in the weekly notified HFMD cases in west China. Each 1 °C rise of temperature, 1％ rise in relative humidity and one hour rise in sunshine led to an increase of 0.90%, 3.99% and 0.68% in the monthly malaria cases, respectively. Climate change with the increased temperature and irregular patterns of rainfall may affect the pathogen reproduction rate, their spread and geographical distribution, change human behavior and influence the ecology of vectors, and increase the rate of disease transmission in different regions of China. Exploring relevant adaptation strategies and the health burden of climate change will assist public health authorities to develop an early warning system and protect China's population health, especially in the new 1.5 °C scenario of the newly released IPCC special report. •Many infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are mostly affected by climate variability and climate change.•The impact of climate change on infectious disease transmission may be more prevalent in southern cities of China.•More infectious studies with multiple-locations and a long study period as well as adaptation strategies are required.