A differential equation model for predicting public opinions and behaviors from persuasive information: Application to the index of consumer sentiment

This paper shows that ideodynamics is a differential equation model capable ofpredicting public opinions and behaviors from persuasive information. Statistics are also developed for the model. The methodology is applied to predict the time trend of public opinion about the economy as quantified by t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Journal of mathematical sociology Vol. 27; no. 1; pp. 29 - 51
Main Authors Fan, David P., Cook, R. Dennis
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Taylor & Francis Group 01.01.2003
Taylor & Francis
Subjects
History, theory and methodology
Methodology
Sociology
Economic behavior
Time
Mass media
Consumer
Public Opinion
Statistics
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Summary:This paper shows that ideodynamics is a differential equation model capable ofpredicting public opinions and behaviors from persuasive information. Statistics are also developed for the model. The methodology is applied to predict the time trend of public opinion about the economy as quantified by the Index of Consumer Sentiment compiled by the University of Michigan. The explanatory variables are derived from news coverage of the economy in positive and negative terms.
ISSN:0022-250X
1545-5874
DOI:10.1080/00222500305886