Reliability assessment of repairable closed-loop process systems under uncertainties

• Published in: ISA transactions Vol. 104; pp. 222 - 232
• Main Authors: He, Rui, Chen, Guoming, Shen, Xiaoyu, Jiang, Shengyu, Chen, Guoxing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2020
• Subjects: Bayesian network; Closed-loop system; Monte Carlo simulation; Reliability assessment; Uncertainty; Reliability assessment; Uncertainty; Closed-loop system; Bayesian network; Monte Carlo simulation
• ISSN: 0019-0578; 1879-2022
• DOI: 10.1016/j.isatra.2020.05.008

System reliability assessment plays a crucial role in making maintenance decisions and reducing hazard frequencies. Although many engineering methods can effectively evaluate the process reliability, most of them are often unreasonable for closed-loop systems because of the combination of closed-loop structures, maintenance characteristics, and dynamic failure mechanisms. Also, uncertainties generally exist in the reliability assessment due to the insufficient reliability data and expert knowledge. Therefore, an integrated approach is proposed in present works to assess the dynamic reliability of repairable closed-loop systems with the consideration of uncertainties. Firstly, Bayesian inference and fuzzy theorem are developed to characterize system uncertainties and estimate lifetime parameters of components. After that, a closed-loop probabilistic reliability assessment (CPRA) method is proposed for the dynamic reliability assessment of closed-loop systems by integrating cyclic Bayesian network modeling and dynamic Bayesian network solving. Besides, a novel non-probabilistic reliability assessment (NPRA) approach based on the probabilistic method and Monte Carlo simulation is presented to make maintenance decisions for repairable systems. Finally, an application of reliability assessment for the offshore crude oil separation system is introduced to verify the proposed methods. •Fuzzy-based parameter estimation is proposed to quantify epistemic uncertainty.•CBN is developed for dynamic reliability modeling of closed-loop systems.•NPRA is proposed based on CBN and MCS for maintenance decision-making.