Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electric Bus Charging Stations Based on Fuzzy Clustering and Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Wolf Pack Algorithm

• Published in: Energies (Basel) Vol. 11; no. 6; p. 1449
• Main Author: Zhang, Xing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.06.2018
• Subjects: Case studies; electric bus charging station; fuzzy clustering; least squares support vector machine; short-term load forecasting; wolf pack algorithm
• ISSN: 1996-1073; 1996-1073
• DOI: 10.3390/en11061449

Accurate short-term load forecasting is of momentous significance to ensure safe and economic operation of quick-change electric bus (e-bus) charging stations. In order to improve the accuracy and stability of load prediction, this paper proposes a hybrid model that combines fuzzy clustering (FC), least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), and wolf pack algorithm (WPA). On the basis of load characteristics analysis for e-bus charging stations, FC is adopted to extract samples on similar days, which can not only avoid the blindness of selecting similar days by experience, but can also overcome the adverse effects of unconventional load data caused by a sudden change of factors on training. Then, WPA with good global convergence and computational robustness is employed to optimize the parameters of LSSVM. Thus, a novel hybrid load forecasting model for quick-change e-bus charging stations is built, namely FC-WPA-LSSVM. To verify the developed model, two case studies are used for model construction and testing. The simulation test results prove that the proposed model can obtain high prediction accuracy and ideal stability.