icumonitoring.ch: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland

In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to "social distancing" measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to...

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Published inSwiss medical weekly Vol. 150; no. 1920; p. w20277
Main Authors Zhao, Cheng, Tepekule, Burcu, Criscuolo, Nicola G, Wendel Garcia, Pedro D, Hilty, Matthias P, Risc-Icu Consortium Investigators In Switzerland, Fumeaux, Thierry, Van Boeckel, Thomas
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Switzerland SMW supporting association (Trägerverein Swiss Medical Weekly SMW) 06.05.2020
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Summary:In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to "social distancing" measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.
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ISSN:1424-3997
1424-3997
DOI:10.4414/smw.2020.20277